That's a pretty strong statement there. Isn't the NFL a win now league, with no guarantees for next year, where you go for it all when you have the opportunity to? Sure... if your organization is poorly run.
Perhaps I've been spoiled with the success of the Seahawks in recent years. Perhaps. But history will have to prove me wrong on that one, because I believe the Seahawks are by a man, Tim Ruskell, who has set a principles for how to build a winning team for the present while keeping an eye towards success in the future. Such principles include:
- Build through the draft.
- Keep your own players.
- Make full use of younger, cheaper players to allow you to keep your own players
- And, of course, build the team with high character, high motor individuals.
The Seahawks, of course, need only look back on the Deion Branch trade from two years ago for some insight into how to approach such a situation. If anything, the Deion Branch trade emphasises that nothing in the NFL is guaranteed, that there is always some inherent risk that a trade won't work out.
The consequences of that trade are twofold - the money allocated for Deion Branch's (6 year, $39 million) contract, and the first round draft pick the Seahawks traded. I don't know how the Seahawks structured Branch's contract, but it's safe to say that the money he got in 2006 didn't prevent them from signing any additional players. So, the true consequences of the Deion Branch trade were, are, and will be experienced in the years after.
Such consequences are typically thought of only in the abstract, but I'll give a very concrete example: John Carlson. Or, more accurately, the need for a Tight End that is being filled this year, Mike Holmgren's last year, with rookie tight end John Carlson. This isn't a new need by any means. By all means the Seahawks utterly failed to find a competent tight end after letting Jeremy Stevens go, and thus the Seahawks were stuck in Green Bay watching balls go through Marcus Pollards hands.
What if the Seahawks hadn't traded their first round pick and were able to use it for a tight end. Check out the 2007 nfl draft. Greg Olson and Zach Miller would both have been available. Or, the Seahawks could have taken Ben Grubbs and used their Mansfield Wrotto pick on someone like Kevin Boss. Or, the Seahawks could have targetted a safety like Brandon Meriweather (though his character issues may have kept him off Ruskell's list) and we wouldn't have to deal with Brian Russell play. Of course, these are all hypotheticals, and draft picks are probably less of a sure thing than free agents (or trades). But the point is that a trade like the one for Deion Branch are not done in a vacuum. They have very real consequences, like Holmgren taking his last shot at a second Super Bowl title with a rookie tight end.
It's also worth pointing out that the Branch trade wasn't made out of immediate need. The Seahawks had two solid receivers, Jackson and Engram, a promising young prospect, Hackett, and a free agent pick-up, Burleson, that provided depth as a fourth receiver. Without foresight of Engram's kidney problem and Burleson's busted thumb, that's good enough. Branch was traded for because Ruskell's relationship with Darrell Jackson had broken down and after a second offseason of dealing with his BS he knew he was going to need to replace him after the season. Branch was traded for because he was probably going to be better than any free agent wide receiver. Access to Branch was what the Seahawks gave up the first round pick. The salary is roughly negligible because that same money would have gone towards a wide receiver starting in 2007 anyway.
The Seahawks current situation, with regards to the future, is the exact opposite. While Bobby Engram will have to be replaced within a few years, The Seahawks have a group of young receivers that they believe will produce their receivers of the future. Again, there's no guarantee, but good organizations develop their young talent into impact players.
So, let's say the Seahawks trade for Anquan Boldin. That trade would be undertaken with the understanding that Boldin would want a new contract, probably larger than Deion Branch's. Meanwhile, Leroy Hill is set to be a free agent after this season. Taylor/Kent/Payne/Obomanu might not be ready this year, but there's a darn good chance that (at least) one of them blossoms this season and challenges for a starting job next season. While the choice for this year may be between Boldin and Taylor, the choice for years to come will be between Boldin and, say, Lance Laury vs. Hill and Taylor. Not such an easy choice anymore, is it? I don't think it's possible to keep Hill if Boldin is acquired, and if they try they'll have to cut money from some other place, like Julian Peterson. What's the point of keeping Hill if you lose Peterson now? Why not keep the trio together for another couple of years, and when Peterson starts to decline and cutting him would have negligible cap impact, replace him with a younger, cheaper linebacker, which then allows you to give someone like Kelly Jennings or Lawrence Jackson a (potentially) deserved large second contract. And such the cycle of player development goes.
The Seahawks have what they need in wide receiver right now. Yes, it's going to hurt going the first few weeks without Engram and Branch, but that won't be something that keeps the Seahawks out of the playoffs (maybe it keeps them from earning a first round bye), and if Boldin is the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs then trading for Boldin shouldn't even be considered. This is the kind of trade you make, if you're at the level that the Seahawks are, to win the Super Bowl - not to just make the playoffs.
Two seasons from now, when the Seahawks are making another run at the Super Bowl, I would hope they learned their lesson about jumping at wants that violate core principles. I don't want to start the 2010 season thinking, "The Seahawks would be solid if they just had an impact outside linebacker. Ooh, so-and-so is available from this team. Let's trade a first round pick for the rights to give him a big contract!" We already have that guy. His name is Leroy Hill, and the only way we'll be able to sign him is by saving money by developing 5th- and 6th-round picks into starting wide receivers.
1 comment:
i can see your point, but deoin branch is no anquan boldin. he already knows the system and there's no guarantee a first round receiver willever be as productive as boldin. he's the missing piece and with the injuries we've suffered, the timing couldn't be better to bring him in.
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