First Game First Look: Buffalo Bills

The first (Seahawks) preseason game hasn't been played yet and I'm already looking ahead to the regular season.

I happened to find an episode of NFL Gameday from the 2006 season on my work computer (Of course I rewatched it - I'm starved for football). As an anecdote, it happened to be week 8, which was the week Seattle lost a heart breaker to Kansas City (and was when I first took notice of Jared Allen, albeit from the play where Deion Branch ripped the ball out of his hands while falling out of bounds). That week Indianapolis won their seventh game. They lost to New England the following week, but still, at 7-1, that's strong start to their season. The previous season they started 13-0. Last year they started 7-0 as well (before, again, losing to the Patriots). What's the point to this? Well, it's an obvious one, but great teams should come out of the gates sprinting.

The Seahawks always seem to start slow. From recent history:

• 2004 - 3-3 after 6 games
• 2005 - 4-2 after 6 games
• 2006 - 4-2 after 6 games
• 2007 - 3-3 after 6 games

That's not exactly dominating your opponents.

What's it going to take for the Seahawks to start strong this year? After the Buffalo game, Seattle has two home games against San Francisco and St. Louis that they absolutely should win. After a bye they'll have three tough games at NY Giants, Green Bay at home, and at Tampa Bay. I'm expecting Seattle to be good, but I think a reasonable expectation for the second set of three games is 1-2. If they can somehow pull out a second win, that would be incredible, but I'm not going to count on that. The two home divisional games are wins. (If they aren't then I'll have to seriously reconsider (i.e. lower) my expectations for the season). That puts them at 3-2, plus the outcome of the Bills game, meaning the outcome of their first game will be the difference between a slow start and a decent start.

The first game of the season is always a bit of a wildcard. Teams can change significantly season-to-season, and the preseason provides as much misinformation as it does good information. Last year's opener against the Bucs looked like a poor showing until Tampa turned out to be a playoff team. The Thursday night opener between the Colts and the Saints was supposed to be a good game, until Indy exposed the Saints' defense and foreshadowed their awful (relative to expectations) season. The point here is: I have no idea what to make of Buffalo. They went 7-3 in the middle of the 2007 season, but lost three game to both start and end the season. Their quarterback situation is somewhat rocky. Trent Edwards is young, and he may yet develop, but his season last year (7 TDs, 9 INTs, 56.1% completion rate, 70.4 QB rating in 10 games - kind of like Alex Smith in 2006) says "developing" more than "ready". Has he made the jump over the offseason? Here's Dr. Z's take:

Trent Edwards can be a good quarterback, but right now he's basically a safety-first guy -- take what's given and don't screw it up. The offense has a few firecrackers -- RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Lee Evans -- but not a lot of them. It needs the all-pro LT to protect Edwards ... the guys they've been working at the position are not the answer. The defense is of playoff caliber, the special teams are knock 'em dead. Pay Peters!

Jason Peters, the Bills' money left tackle, is holding out for a new contract. Apparently he's not even returning team phone calls. The Bills aren't caving because Peters has three years, not one, remaining on his contract. I'd be surprised if his hold out continues into the regular season, but at the minimum his hold out is going to mess with line continuity and familiarity. Again from Dr. Z:

The Bills have a new offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert, with a new system, with different line calls and everything. Not easy to pick up.

This also affects starting right tackle Langston Walker, who has been moved to the left side in the interim. This is a necessary move if Peters holds out into the regular season, but every day Walker spends learning at left tackle is a day not spent learning at right tackle.

Walter Jones, the Seahawks all-world left tackle, regularly held out through all of training camp during the years he was franchised and was able to step in without much trouble when the season started. Of course, the year he was finally signed to a long-term deal and participated in training camp was the year Alexander ran for 1880 yards and 27 touchdowns and the Seahawks rode their offensive line all the way to the Super Bowl. So, these things do have some affect.

Can the Seahawks open the year with a win in Buffalo? I'm not sure. The Peters situation is a good thing for the Seahawks. Otherwise the Bills look like an up-and-coming team that could challenge for a wild-card spot. The Seahawks, specifically their defense, play worse on the road, especially when playing at 1pm eastern. Lose this game and the Seahawks are looking at a 3-3 start. Win and they've got a 1pm eastern road game chalked up in the win column and should have a ton of momentum heading into Giants stadium 3-0 after a bye week. I can't believe I have to wait four and a half more weeks for this game...