The (NFC) Favorites: Dallas Cowboys

I've been sitting on this post for a while because I actually had some original media that I wanted to accompany it. Two weekends ago I got up early on Saturday and drove up to Oxnard to see the Cowboys practice in person. I have some pictures and videos that I'd like to post, but they require some editing, which I may never actually get to, so I'll just up and write the post without the picture accompaniment.

The Cowboys are good*. Really good*. Peter King was at the practice I got to see (though I unfortunately didn't see King there, only read that he was there later), and he had this to say:

It's amazing how many big names and big stories there are here. Look, over there -- Dave Campo, back coaching the secondary ... and he's working with Adam (nee Pacman) Jones. With the linebackers, there's a new number 55 -- Zach Thomas, the seven-time Pro Bowl defender coming home to redeem himself. That strong-looking whippet in the backfield? Felix Jones. And the guest coaches: Erik Williams, old Big E, is here on a minority coaching fellowship, working with the line. Michael Irvin had been working with the receivers before leaving the other day for the Hall of Fame ceremonies. Dat Nguyen is working with the linebackers. And Nate Newton is hanging around, doing some media and promotional stuff.

Those are just the new guys. That all comes after names like Romo, Owens, Barber, and Witten on offense, and Ware, Spears, and Newman on defense. I didn't even mention the three pro-bowl offensive linemen. This team is loaded with talent.

So what's the asterisk for? Two words: on paper. This team is loaded, and is realistically a number-two receiver away from being better than any AFC team... on paper.

I add that caveat largely because I'm a tad skeptical that the Cowboys are as good as they seem to be, and maybe that's wishful thinking on the part of the Seahawks fan that knows the road to the Super Bowl goes through Dallas. But if I'm going to look for ways poke holes in the Cowboy's armor, here they are:

• Wade Phillips. On top of everything else, Phillips hasn't won anything, including a playoff game. That may not be a problem on a team that has an established winning tradition, but the Cowboy organization is equally starved of playoff wins. Most of the players have only experienced regular season success. I don't buy Phillips as the man to lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl victory.
  
• More Wade Phillips. Does this guy have control of his team? I'm sure he was a godsend in the first post-Parcells season, but honeymoons don't last forever, and players-coaches can be taken advantage of by knuckleheads. Meanwhile, Jerry Jones has turned the Cowboys into the Oakland Raiders of the new century - willing to take a chance on any troubled player so long as they have talent. The T.O. experiment looks like it's succeeding. Tank Johnson could well be reformed. But Jerry is pushing his luck with the Pacman signing. How well will the team hold up should they start the season 1-2 (not unreasonable - see below).
• Lack of wide receivers. After Terrell Owens, the Cowboys' receiver talent drops off significantly. If Joe Horn gets his trade to the Cowboys the problem is probably neutralized - Patrick Crayton is much better as a third receiver, plus Witten and whichever back is in will be receiving threats as well. Still, Horn is getting old (36) and his last good season (2004 - 1399 yards, 11 TDs) nearly equals his combined production from the previous three seasons (1576 yards 6 TDs). And Owens isn't exactly a spring chicken himself, turning 35 at the end of the season. Can we expect another pro-bowl season out of T.O. Two years ago he was an aging receiver with a bad case of the drops. Was that all Parcells' fault?
• Romo. This will be the first year where teams will have a full season of game tape to gameplan with. Romo could well be great, but I'll need to see another season of it before I consider it a given.
• Marion Barber as a feature back. Barber has an insanely-punishing running style, which works great if you're a third-down, goal-line, and end-of-game back. Barber has averaged 159 carries/year, with 2007 being the year he was used most (204 carries). Can he keep up that production while increasing his attempts to 250-300 (that's only 15-20/game - not at all unreasonable). Remember the Giants game: After being the backup all year, Barber was made the starter for the playoff game. He got 27 carries, well above his 13/game average for the year, and while he had a great game statistically, most of his production came in the first half. When the second half came, and the Cowboys needed him to help fight off the Giants' comeback, Barber was noticeably tired. That doesn't bode well for transitioning to being a feature back.

Now that I'm done nitpicking I can go back to talking about how good the Cowboys probably will be. Did you notice that I didn't nitpick their defense? That's because it's solid. Maybe I could go after the secondary (Newman is hurt, Pacman hasn't (yet) played up to his potential, Hamlin is not at all a pro-bowl safety and is a total liability against deep passes), but that will sort itself out. Overall, the Cowboys are definitely the favorite in the NFC, and should remain so until they show themselves not to be, either by (1) coming out of the gate stumbling, or (2) getting demolished at home by another playoff-caliber NFC team.

The Cowboys don't have any killer parts to their schedule, but certainly the start of the season is one of the more difficult portions:

• Week 1, at Cleveland: Cleveland could be good. Maybe really good. Maybe mediocre, or even bad. But what I know for sure is that Cleveland is going to enter week 1 thinking they're good and knowing they have a great shot at beating Dallas at home.
• Week 2, Philadelphia: Prime time Sunday night game, which should up the intensity of this game further. McNabb and Westbrook should be healthy so early in the season, which give the Eagles the ability to beat anybody. Let Asante Samuel shadow Owens, move one of the safeties up in the box, and suddenly you have a grinder that Philadelphia could eek out.
• Week 3, at Green Bay. The Packers are a total wild-card with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, but the rest of their roster is mostly in tact. They'll definitely come into this game with something to proove. Oh, and it's a monday night game, so you know everybody will be ready to play.
• Week 4, Washington. The hated rival comes to town.

None of those games are gimmies. 3-1 would be a great start. 1-3 (especially with two division losses) and the team might come apart.

As for getting demolished at home by another playoff-caliber NFC team... you can probably guess where I'm going with this one. The Seahawks go to Dallas on Thanksgiving for a game that will either (a) immediately make Seattle the favorite in the NFC, or (b) confirm the conventional wisdom that the Seahawks are just a so-so team that has trouble on the road and gets into the playoffs by virtue of playing in the NFC West. No doubt, this is a big game, and the Seahawks don't have much of a chance at winning it - maybe 20%. However, if the Seahawks want a first-round bye, they probably have to win this game.