Taking Stock of the NFC West

As it so happened, I was able to watch two NFC West teams play their third preseason game this weekend - Arizona and San Francisco. Coincidentally, both of those teams had quarterback decisions that rested on individual performances in those games, so I watched the first half of each with an eye towards quarterback play, as well as how each team performed overall.

I'll start all of this by saying the only way the Seahawks will lose the NFC West is if injuries derail their season. I'm specifically concerned about injuries to any of the offensive linemen, Engram and Branch, and maybe Hasselbeck (I feel pretty good about Seneca Wallace). I don't think there's a single defensive player whose absence would break the defense. Maybe Tatupu. The defense has good depth, especially with the way some younger players have played in training camp. Anyway, the Seahawks are damn good while the rest of the division is at least a notch lower. That doesn't mean we can assume a 6-0 in-division record (start doing that and you might end up 3-3 like in 2006), but that it's doable. It goes without saying how much more important the division games are towards making the playoffs. The Seahawks can likely win the division with 10 wins this year, maybe 9. If they go 5-1 in the division, they'll only have to go .500 in their other 10 games to make the playoffs.

Onto the division rivals...

It looks like J.T. O'Sullivan is going to be the starting quarterback for the 49ers. There's definitely talent there. He seemed relatively calm and collected. He completed seven of his eight pass attempts. His most impressive moment was his touchdown pass, where escaped the pocked towards the sidelines and at the last moment zinged a pass 40 yards to a receiver in the endzone. If he hadn't already won the starting job, I think he did it on that play. Alex Smith didn't put up much to argue with, and Shaun Hill has been absolutely silent since the start of camp.

So, how good is J.T. O'Sullivan? He'll be in his 8th year out of UC Davis (now there's a football powerhouse), has played in all of five games (four last year) during that time, and pretty much got this job by (1) knowing Mike Martz's system and (2) not being Alex Smith. I guess there's a chance he's the next Kurt Warner, except that the 49ers have no receivers. Their most athletic receiver is probably TE Vernon Davis, but Martz traditionally uses tight ends more for blocking. Frank Gore looked spry, and he should be their #1 weapon, but their options really drop off after that. I think the 49ers are going to struggle scoring points. Their defense looks like it could be good (though their supposedly talented cornerbacks seemed to get beat a lot. Maybe that's a scheme thing...), so maybe the 49ers can win some low scoring games. My guess is that the 49ers will win six games this season.

Next up is Arizona. Matt Leinart laid one of the largest eggs I've seen for someone trying to win a starting quarterback job. What I find strange about Leinart is that he never looks like he's struggling. Alex Smith looked completely overwhelmed when playing this week. Leinart looked like he was playing ball in the park. It's odd because it's rare to see a quarterback play with the appearance of confidence while making so many horrible throws. I have no idea what has happened to Matt Leinart. I remember him playing in one of his first starts, in the Monday night game against the Bears (the one with the infamous Dennis Green blow-up), and he looked pro-bowl-bound. Now, he's just lost.

So, Kurt Warner gets another shot. Warner is a walking turnover waiting to happen. Besides his tendency to throw interceptions (a lot), he's not particularly mobile and can have trouble holding onto the ball. The Cardinals have a pair of money receivers (I've flipped on Boldin, now thinking he'll have his typical solid year). Where I think the Cardinals will have problems this year is in their running game, largely because I think Edgerrin James will start his decline this year. Their defense looks decent (I may have read that some of their DBs are injured, but I can't find anything at the moment). The Cardinals are the one team that I think can potentially knock Seattle of their perch. I'll put the Cardinals down for 8 wins.

Lastly, the St. Louis Rams. I think the Rams are in for a long season. They've already experienced more injuries on their offensive line, and word is that Orlando Pace is still rusty from not playing much the past few years. I think 'rusty' will ultimately translate into 'done', like Jonathan Ogden done, and without a left tackle playing at Pace-prime-level the offense is going to sputter much like it did last year. I haven't heard many good things about the defense. What I have heard is that Chris Long isn't stepping in with an immediate impact like they hoped he would. (How great would it be if Lawrence Jackson ended up having a better rookie season than Chris Long?) Four wins, and Linehan gets fired at the end of the season.