Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Injury Concern: Bobby Engram

Perhaps I spoke too soon when I said the Seahawks escaped the first preseason game without any major injuries.

Actually, only one of the three injuries occurred during the preseason game, which was Bobby Engram breaking his shoulder. First of all, who breaks a bone in their shoulder? The shoulders have the most padding of any body part in the football uniform. I'm tempted to say that this is exactly why the Seahawks held back from giving Engram a bigger contract after he outperformed his current one last season, except that Engram is far from brittle. Outside of that weird kidney problem in 2006, Engram has played in at least 13 games every season since coming to Seattle, and unless he is severely calcium deficient, this injury is just an unfortunate freak accident.

This injury is supposed to keep Engram out 6-8 weeks. Holmgren said best case he's back for week three against the Rams, worst case he's back week five against the Giants.

Quickly, the silver lining of this injury is that the young receivers get more reps, which should give the coaches extra information with which they'll determine who's a starter, who's a reserve, and who gets cut. It could also speed up the development of said receivers by giving them more game reps, both in the preseason and in the beginning of the regular season.

With that said, there isn't much good that can come from this injury. The above paragraph is about a drop of lemonade coming from a bucket of lemons.

Bobby Engram isn't injury prone Deion Branch, D.J. Hackett, or Darryl Jackson, so this comparison may be unfair, but if I've learned anything from the past few seasons it's that receivers rarely come back when initially expected. I think the Seahawks will be extremely lucky if Engram is back for the Giants game, and similarly lucky if Branch is ready to go by then regardless of the 'ahead of schedule' comments from the coaches. The same was said of Tubbs (I'll get to him later).

Nate Burleson is not a number one receiver. At least, judging from his previous seasons, he's not. In the past, when he's been asked to step up, from the season after Moss left Minnesota to opportunities with the Seahawks, he's struggled. That's not to say Burleson can't be a number one this season - he'll be 27 this season (beginning of his prime), has (slowly but) steadily progressed in the Seahawks offense, and has shown flashes in camp this year. But until proven otherwise, Burleson is a receiver that performs best when playing along side better receivers. He's a perfect number three when paired with Branch and Engram. But with those two out, at least for start of the season, Burleson will be asked to step up.

The young receivers will lose a learning resource by not having Engram practicing with them.

Still, assuming Engram is back within a reasonable amount of time (and similarly with Branch), the challenge will be to get through the beginning of the season unharmed. So, in terms of wins and losses, what affect will this injury have?
  • Week 1 - at Buffalo: First game of the season, on the road. I've already noted the danger in this winnable game, and having only one veteran receiver will only make it more difficult to start the season with a win.
  • Weeks 2 and 3 - San Francisco, St. Louis at home: Cupcake games. Not worried.
  • Week 5 - at NY Giants: I don't think this game is winnable unless both Branch and Engram are back, even if each is only at 80 or 90 percent. This is the sort of game that can make the difference between earning a first round bye or hosting a first round game. Even at full strength I wouldn't expect the Seahawks to win, but without key offensive weapons it's not even worth hoping for.
Past week five, Engram is either back to normal or will be dealing with a nagging injury for the rest of the season. If the Seahawks can go 3-1 in their first four games, I'd consider the affect of the Engram injury nil.

The final consequence of Engram's injury is the roster spot he'll take up, and specifically who gets left off if an extra receiver is kept on. It was already going to be tough for Justin Forsett, Jamar Adams, and other bubble non-receivers to make the final 53-man roster. Even if Branch (off the PUP list) and Engram take up roster spots, I'm of the mind that the Seahawks shouldn't keep more than five additional receivers, and could maybe get away with just four, if it allows someone like Forsett to make the team. But even if Forsett or Adams do get cut, if they make it onto the practice squad then there's no problem. It's if the Seahawks keep an extra receiver and one of their non-receiver young prospects gets signed to another team's 53-man roster that the Engram injury hurts, even if the affect isn't felt until later years when such players would make a meaningful impact.

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