Sunday, August 10, 2008

Random Non-Seahawks Topic - Patriots Offensive Line

The NFL is, if anything, a copycat league. As such, after watching the Giants solve the Patriots riddle with constant pressure on Tom Brady, seemingly every team has made it a priority to improve their pass rush. What I find interesting is that it took a dominating pass rush being shoved in everybody's face for this meme to propagate league-wide. What if the Chargers had managed to knock off the Patriots in the AFC championship? Would every team now be looking their own Antonio Gates? Would having a dominating pass rush be any less necessary for championship team? I'm probably complaining more about conventional wisdom and narratives among NFL media members (read: ESPN), as I would expect every NFL coach to recognize the value of getting pressure on the opposing quarterback. Anyway, the Giants had a great pass rush, for sure, but how much of the pressure from that game was due to the failings of the Patriots's offensive line?

The Seahawks play the Patriots this year, so this isn't entirely irrelevant to the Seahawks, but I'm writing this more out of curiosity of how good the Patriots will be this year. I don't buy into the Super Bowl loser curse - it's a random statistic that is bound to have runs of seeming non-randomness. The Patriots are accustomed to winning, then coming back the next year and winning again, so unless the team's age becomes a factor (after a grueling 2007) I don't expect a letdown simply from the Super Bowl loss. However, there could be a decline due to poor(er) performances by certain units.

The most obvious candidate for a decline is the Patriots secondary, which lost Asante Samuel and Randle Gay, and will start an aging Rodney Harrison at safety. That may be a concern, especially if some of the younger players (including two draft picks) are unable to step up, but ultimately their secondary play can be mitigated with a pash rush and good overall play from their front seven. Plus, Bill Belichick is a brilliant defensive coach, especially with individual game plans, so I'll give that unit the benefit of the doubt.

If there's a potential vulnerability for the Patriots this year, it's their offensive line. The Boston Globe took a look at the problems emerging in training camp, namely that the offensive line has been hit with a disproportionally large amount of injuries. I'm sure nagging injuries and general fatigue from a long season contributed at least in part to the offensive line's failures in the Super Bowl.

What happens if the Patriots line declines? Tom Brady will have less time to find his receivers. Randy Moss won't have the time to stretch the opposing defense vertically. The running backs will have fewer holes. Offensive production as a whole will decline.

So, will the Patriots offensive line decline? For that we'll have to wait and see. But, given the copycat nature of the NFL, opposing teams will try to replicate the success the Giants experienced. The line will be tested in such a way every week. So if the Patriots look weaker this season, I'll being looking closely at the offensive line.

No comments: