Where To Go From 0-2

I wasn't able to watch last weekend's game, as I was away vacationing at the Grand Canyon.  As it would happen, though, I was at someone's cabin (with DirecTV and internet) on Sunday, so I was able to follow the game via NFL.com's game tracker.  So, I ended up knowing what was happening in real time without seeing how such happenings actually occurred.  I've tried to fill in the gaps through newspaper articles, blogs, and sports talk radio, but with only second-hand info I'm not going to comment on the game other than to say that it was incredibly disappointing.

I still believe the Seahawks can play like a playoff team once Engram and Branch come back - the running game looks fine, John Carlson is a stud, the o-line looks better, the front seven on defense looks fine.  Pretty much everything other than punting and (possibly) defending deep pass plays looks good enough for the Seahawks to be a playoff team.  The wide receiver situation is the obvious wildcard here, but as a fan I have to have hope - hope that the Seahawks have a chance to get into the playoffs.

With all of that said, what's the current state of the Seahawks' season, with respect to their record, opponent records, and potential NFC playoff teams?

• The Seahawks lost one game (Buffalo) that would have been necessary to reasonably have a chance at a first round bye.  Buffalo may turn out to be quite good, and maybe a win wasn't as reasonable as it seemed at the time.  But, given the second loss (below), getting a first-round bye is completely off the table.  However, this was a road loss to an out-of-conference opponent, which means a home game wasn't squandered and it won't count towards playoff tiebreakers.
• The Seahawks lost a second game, a division that should have been an easy win.  This is the loss that really hurts because of (a) how close is came to being a win, (b) how much it figures into divisional and conference tie-breakers, and (c) now the Seahawks have to win a much more difficult game later in the season to make up for the loss.  Overall, it just makes the road to the playoffs that much tougher.
• The Cardinals look like a potential 9 or 10 win team.  Given that the Seahawks have won the NFC West with 9 and 10 wins in the previous two season, and look to be roughly as good as the previous years, the Seahawks are in for a dogfight.
• The NFC East looks to have three legitimate playoff contenders - the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants, meaning two of those three will be in the running for a wildcard berth (just like the previous two years)
• In the NFC North, the Vikings have had an equally rough start, albeit against teams better than San Francisco, but they could still recover and compete for a wildcard spot.  The Bears have an outside shot.
• In the NFC South, Carolina looks good, and New Orleans and Tampa may also be good.

So, as I asked in the title, how do the Seahawks proceed after their 0-2 start?

• Their week three game against the Rams, at home, is an absolute must win.  Besides the stat that no team has ever started 0-3 and made the playoffs, a loss to the Rams would mean the loss to the 49ers wasn't a fluke, and the Seahawks would simply be not that good this year.  If the Seahawks lose in week three, it probably means they're a 6-10 team.  Ouch.  Let's hope for a win.
• With the Cardinals looking like challengers, maybe even favorites, for the NFC West crown, the two games against the Cardinals are now the most important games of the year, as earning a wildcard spot in a newly-competitive NFC looks nightmarish.  Fortunately, these games come later in the season, which should provide enough time for the Cardinals, specifically Kurt Warner, to get beat up.  Furthermore, the receiver situation should be fairly settled by the first game, as Branch and Engram will have had enough time to recover to 100% of their potential for this year (which may mean 80% for Branch, but that's still more than he'll have for, say, the Giants game).  If the Seahawks are going to win the NFC West, they'll likely have to win both games against the Cardinals - two Arizona losses, two Seattle wins, plus the head-to-head tie-breaker to Seattle will be tough for Arizona to overcome, again assuming they're a 9 or 10 win team.
• To make this point more concrete, the Seahawks can be no worse than two games behind the Cardinals in their 14 other games.  Say the Seahawks go 6-8 in their 14 non-Cardinals games, while the Cardinals go 8-6.  In such a case, the Seahawks need these four wins - at 49ers, at Dolphins, Redskins, at Rams - and two from Packers, at Buccs, Patriots, Jets.  I left out a couple that I figure are lost causes, but the above is probably reasonable (the hard part will be winning in Arizona, in week 17, with everything on the line).  Meanwhile, the Cardinals will need six losses, likely coming from these games - at Redskins, Bills, Cowboys, at Panthers, Giants, at Eagles, at Patriots.  And that assumes they sweep their divisional rivals.
• The wildcard picture looks brutal (as I outlined in the teams above), but the Seahawks do have some control over their fate with games against the following teams with similar wildcard possibilities: Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Buccs.  They also have a game against Green Bay, but with Minnesota slipping to 0-2 I'd be shocked if the Packers didn't win the division.

Assuming the Seahawks have hit bottom in terms of injuries (and with Hasselbeck's back, you never know...), they still have a great shot at winning the NFC West.  It all comes down to the two games against Arizona.  The Seahawks have three tough games following the Rams game and the bye, so they could reasonably start 1-5 and still have a shot at winning the NFC West with eight wins overall, including two wins over the Cardinals.  And, no matter how poor their record is, and NFC West title means a first round game at Qwest, and that always leads to good things.

So, back away from the edge.  This season isn't over by a long shot... just so long as the Seahawks beat the Rams.