11 Wins

I've gone back and forth as to what my expectations for the Seahawks 2008 season should be. Nothing short of a Super Bowl victory is a bit much. Missing the playoffs would be an obvious disappointment. Where should I draw the line?

On his Friday show, Ian Furness suggested that anything less than an appearance in the NFC championship game would be a disappointment. That sounds right. The Seahawks have lost in the divisional round the past two years, and I have every reason to believe that this year's team is better than the past two. So, that sets playoff expectations.

However, the playoffs are a little far away, so I thought I'd set expectations for the regular season. I'm going back and forth between the second and third playoff seed, but what I keep getting stuck on is that the only way the Seahawks can absolutely guarantee they get a two seed rather than a three seed is by winning every single game. So, rather than go by playoff seeding, I'm going to go by wins.

11 wins is the expectation. I'm setting that irrespective of their schedule (which happens to be fairly week). 11 wins virtually guarantees a playoff spot (when was the last time an 11 win team missed the playoffs?). 11 wins forces the national media (whose attention towards my team I crave) to take notice. 11 wins would be the third-most by a Seahawks team ever.

So, with the 11-win expectation set, let's have a little fun and try to figure out where those 11 wins will come from. Here goes a ranking, from least difficult to most difficult, and we'll see how reasonable 11 wins are:

15a: Week 2 - 49ers (1pm start)
15b: Week 3 - Rams (1pm)
I don't think too highly of either the 49ers or the Rams, so the games against them at Qwest Field (or Q-West if you're the horrible Raider's preseason TV team - that's one thing I didn't mention in my last post, how horrible they were). It doesn't matter who is injured for these games. There's absolutely no excuse for losing them.

14: Week 12 - Redskins (1pm)
This game got a whole lot easier after Thursday's performance. There's a chance that by week 12 the Redskins will have picked up Zorn's offense, but there's an equal chance that the team has quit on Zorn by then as well. It's a big help that a game like this comes before the Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys.

13: Week 8 - at 49ers (1pm)
By week 8 the league should have J.T. O'Sullivan figured out. It's a road game but is in the pacific time zone. There's always danger when playing a divisional opponent, but like I said, I don't think much of the 49ers. Also, Holmgren always coaches a little harder when preparing for the 49ers.

12: Week 15 - at Rams (10am)
By week 15 the Rams will probably have broken down, lead by Orlando Pace's inevitable season-ending injury at mid-season. The danger is if the Seahawks still haven't figured out how to play at 10 am.

11: Week 10 - at Miami (10am)
I have no idea how good Miami will be. A five-win improvement over last year still makes them only a six-win team. Miami doesn't have many weapons, on offense or defense but, above all else, this is a Bill Parcells-run and Bill Parcells protege-coached team, and that counts for a lot. By week 10 Miami could be pretty good.

10: Week 6 - Packers (1pm)
Besides this being a home game, there should be a little extra motivation to avenge the playoff loss.

9: Week 11 - Cardinals (1pm)
The Seahawks get a huge break by not having to face the Cardinals until week 11. I'd be surprised if Warner lasts the year (especially with the injuries to the Cardinals o-line piling-up), meaning the Seahawks could catch them with either a dinged-up Warner or a rusty Leinart.

8: Week 9 - Eagles (1pm)
I think the Eagles will be the second-best team in the NFC East. The Seahawks are lucky to get the Eagles at home this year.

7: Week 1 - at Bills (10am)
This game gets special treatment, relative to the others, because I know what the injury situation for each team will be. This game is made that much more difficult by missing Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, Sean Locklear, and Rocky Bernard.

6: Week 7 - at Buccaneers (5pm)
The Seahawks catch a huge break with this being a night game, hence the curse of the east coast, 10am-start game doesn't apply.

5: Week 16 - Jets (1pm)
The Jets should come into this game needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, meaning this will be a dogfight.

4: Week 17 - at Cardinals (1pm)
With any luck, the Seahawks will have a playoff-birth locked up before this game. The Cardinals, however, won't, and what better way to make the playoffs than by beating the division rival at home?

3: Week 5 - at Giants (10am)
In addition to this being an east-coast game starting at 10am, it also follows a bye week, which Holmgren's Seahawks have historically done poorly in. Oh, and the Giants look like they could challenge for a wildcard, if not their division.

2: Week 14 - Patriots (5pm)
Man, it would be great to beat the Patriots, wouldn't it? By week 14 both Branch and Engram should be as healthy as they can be and John Carlson will have 12 games worth of polish under his belt. That's significant because the Patriots' weakness looks to be its secondary. With that said, I can't make this game easier than the Giants game because, well, it's the Patriots.

1: Week 13 - at Cowboys (1pm Thursday)
The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC is going to go through Dallas, so long as their motley crew of personalities doesn't lead to the team self-destructing mid-season. This is a road game against the class of the NFC with three days to prepare.

As promised, that was fun. Here are a couple final thoughts after looking back through that list:

The five easiest are no-excuse-for-not-winning games.

The next five are significantly tougher. All five are winnable though, and losses in this group of games will be the difference between hosting a wildcard-round game or having the week off. Notice that this week's Bills game is in this group.

Four of the five most-difficult games come during the final five weeks of the season. The Seahawks had better take care of business early in the season.