I've seen similar sentiments many places, but this post from TheBigLead pushed me just far enough to write about how the Browns compare to the Steelers. TheBigLead has the most egregious rankings disparity (Steelers fourth, Browns nineteenth), but the major sites I've checked out have them even or with the Steelers slightly better (Fox, ESPN, CBS). My sense is that the Browns are rightly ranked in the 10-12 range, while the Steelers need to be put closer to 15 than 5. Why so?
As a baseline, from the end of last season, the two teams were roughly equal, both finishing 10-6 (the Steelers got the division title via having a better record against divisional opponents). Pittsburgh swept the season series, but that stat is a bit misleading - their game in the season opener was the sole Charlie Frye start, and their week nine game in Pittsburgh required a fairly significant comeback by the Steelers for the win. The eye-test reveals the teams were roughly equal. As far as the records go, Cleveland played a fourth-place schedule while Pittsburgh got a second place schedule, translating into games with Oakland and Houston vs. Denver and Jacksonville. Alright, edge Steelers. If the preseason rankings were to be based on last year's performance, then the Steelers should rightly be a few spots ahead of the Browns.
But this is about this year. The teams have changed.
Cleveland picked up a pair of massive defensive tackles, Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers. They added Donte Stallworth as another receiving threat. Yes, they need a corner (or three), but overall they've improved.
Pittsburgh lost Alan Faneca. Two words: Steve Hutchinson. I saw first-hand what losing a premier left guard will do to an offensive line. According to Scouts Inc., the Steelers have the 24th-ranked offensive line now. And the Browns? Number one. That's not even in the same ballpark. Rashard Mendenhall is a nice draft pick, and he'll tandem nicely with Willie Parker, but a running back will only be as good as the line blocking for him. (Seahawks note: The Hawks are ranked 26th. Ouch). On the defensive side, Pro Bowl nose tackle Casey Hampton has reported to camp so overweight that he isn't being allowed to practice.
One of these teams is going in the right direction. The other is going in the wrong direction.
Finally, let's look at the schedules. All AFC North teams have a brutal schedule this year, having to play all of the teams from the two toughest divisions, the AFC South and the NFC East. However, both have identical home and road match-ups with those opponents. Wash. Of course divisional match-ups are identical, so the only difference between the schedules are the games dictated by their 2007 final division standings. Pittsburgh, with a first-place schedule, gets games against San Diego and at New England. Cleveland, meanwhile, with a second-place schedule, gets games against Denver and at Buffalo. Which set of games would you rather your team have?
In the end, all that is relevant about this match-up is who will win the AFC North. Their schedules are so difficult that the best they can reasonably hope for is a three-seed from winning their division. And with all other games being equal, their seasons essentially come down to their two head-to-head match-ups and the two games that differ between their schedules. At best Pittsburgh will match records in the two differing games, and it would be reasonable for those games to result in a two-game difference. The first head-to-head match-up is in week two in Cleveland. That game will either big Cleveland a slight lead or Pittsburgh a huge lead. And the second comes in the last game of the season. That will be a great game.
If it isn't obvious from the post, I am biased in favor of the Browns, and way against the Steelers, but I tried to structure the arguments so that they came from an objective thought-process (even if my tone didn't). This will be a fun, completely-unrelated-to-the-Seahawks match-up to follow.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Thoughts on the Hall of Fame Game
From Colin Cowherd's show yesterday, TV ratings for sporting events on Sunday:
You can't take much from preseason games, especially ones this early, as far as team performance, but you can look at individual performances.
Thursday, 8/7 - Saints at Cardinals, 5:00 pm Pacific, ESPN
Friday, 8/8 - 49ers at Raiders, 7:00 pm Pacific, KTLA (somehow the Raiders games get broadcast here in LA)
Monday, 8/11 - Bengals at Packers, 5:00 pm Pacific, ESPN
- X Games (ABC): 1.2
- Sunday Night Baseball (ESPN): 1.9
- Hall of Fame game (NBC): 5.4
You can't take much from preseason games, especially ones this early, as far as team performance, but you can look at individual performances.
- Jason Campbell looked sharp. Jim Zorn is going to be missed by the Seahawks, but not nearly as much as he's going to be appreciated this first year by the Redskins offense. Zorn is apparently the Redskins head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterbacks coach. Sounds like a lot, but the NBC commentators noted that Zorn is leaving the run game to the offensive line coach. I assume Zorn will be doing the play calling, which means he still has plenty of responsibilities on his plate, but allowing him to focus on quarterback development and the passing game will be huge for the Redskins.
- Speaking of developing Redskins quarterbacks, Colt Brennan looked great. Keep him as the second or third quarter back for five years and Zorn can probably develop him into a nice starter.
- Mike Hart looked great, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he contributes to the Colts this year. Sure, he was playing against the third team defense, but he still ran great. I just looked up his player page - I didn't realize he was so small - 5'9", 195. That's just barely bigger than Justin Forsett.
- Quinn Gray looked awful. So did Jared Lorenzen. The Colts have kept only two quarterbacks in recent seasons, but are thinking of keeping a third as Manning is having knee problems. What's the point of keeping a third if it's going to be one of those two? Lorenzen is just a circus act, and the Colts should know how bad Gray can be, given how he single-handedly gave the Colts a win while playing for the Jags, what with his zero touchdown, two interception, 11.1 QB rating performance on Monday night.
Thursday, 8/7 - Saints at Cardinals, 5:00 pm Pacific, ESPN
Friday, 8/8 - 49ers at Raiders, 7:00 pm Pacific, KTLA (somehow the Raiders games get broadcast here in LA)
Monday, 8/11 - Bengals at Packers, 5:00 pm Pacific, ESPN
Monday, August 4, 2008
A Tail of Two Practice Squaders (cont.)
Finishing up my thoughts on some practice squaders, Justin Forsett seems to be making quite an impression with his energy and work ethic. When he was drafted in the seventh round this year, I thought he'd end up as a fun story with no shot at the NFL. The typical Forsett analysis: He's too small. I completely bought into it, and I should have known better, given that Tim Ruskell is building this team. Turns out Forsett is the high-motor, high-character (assuming this one - haven't heard any bad stories, and he certainly hasn't been involved in any hit-and-runs like certain other Cal running backs) player that Ruskell loves, and that other teams tend to pass on because of their size.
I love what Ruskell has done with the defense, which was built with 'undersized' players like Tatupu, Mebane, Tapp, and Jennings, just to name a few. But can that philosophy work just as well on offense, especially at running back, where speed can only get you so far (see Bush, Reggie)? On the other hand, Ruskell also signed T.J. Duckett, who is monstrous. This comes from the other Ruskell trend - signing former Falcons and Buccaneers players that had played for him previously.
So, where does Forsett fit in? The consensus is that if five running backs are kept, those five will be Jones, Morris, Weaver, Duckett, and Schmidt. I would be surprised if six running backs were kept, as virtually every other position group will be fighting to keep an additional player (see receivers previously, safeties below). I could even see only four running backs kept if Duckett learns enough of the fullback duties to allow Schmidt to spend a year on the practice squad. But Forsett isn't competing with the fullbacks for a roster spot, with the possible exception of Schmidt being redundant. For the most part, Forsett would fill the same role as Morris.
Would the Seahawks cut Morris (5'11", 216) in favor of Forsett (5'8", 190)? I doubt it. Morris has the most experience of any of the running backs, knows the system, and, most importantly, Holmgren knows what he has with Morris, even if that known is limited at being a number two, change of pace back. Forsett could have additional value as a punt/kick returner, but the Seahawks already have a bunch of other potential returners, so I don't know how much of that value would be realized. My guess is the Seahawks would like to stash Forsett on the practice squad for a year and then let him take over Morris's spot next year should they choose not to resign Morris. I'm keeping my fingers crossed he makes it onto the practice squad.
Quickly, there's now a third practice squader I've taken an interest in - Jamar Adams, an undrafted safety out of Michigan. Word was that he was once considered a second- or third-round pick before he slipped all the way out of the draft. Huh. Jim Mora was plenty excited that the Seahawks were able to pick him up, and Adams has shown potential in camp. The Seattle P.I. has an article about the Seahawks maybe keeping nine defensive backs, rather than their normal eight. I really need to find Sando's roster analysis for historical trends by position group so that I can make better-informed statements about roster spots. Anyway, Adams is pushing, and I'm going to keep an eye on him.
I love what Ruskell has done with the defense, which was built with 'undersized' players like Tatupu, Mebane, Tapp, and Jennings, just to name a few. But can that philosophy work just as well on offense, especially at running back, where speed can only get you so far (see Bush, Reggie)? On the other hand, Ruskell also signed T.J. Duckett, who is monstrous. This comes from the other Ruskell trend - signing former Falcons and Buccaneers players that had played for him previously.
So, where does Forsett fit in? The consensus is that if five running backs are kept, those five will be Jones, Morris, Weaver, Duckett, and Schmidt. I would be surprised if six running backs were kept, as virtually every other position group will be fighting to keep an additional player (see receivers previously, safeties below). I could even see only four running backs kept if Duckett learns enough of the fullback duties to allow Schmidt to spend a year on the practice squad. But Forsett isn't competing with the fullbacks for a roster spot, with the possible exception of Schmidt being redundant. For the most part, Forsett would fill the same role as Morris.
Would the Seahawks cut Morris (5'11", 216) in favor of Forsett (5'8", 190)? I doubt it. Morris has the most experience of any of the running backs, knows the system, and, most importantly, Holmgren knows what he has with Morris, even if that known is limited at being a number two, change of pace back. Forsett could have additional value as a punt/kick returner, but the Seahawks already have a bunch of other potential returners, so I don't know how much of that value would be realized. My guess is the Seahawks would like to stash Forsett on the practice squad for a year and then let him take over Morris's spot next year should they choose not to resign Morris. I'm keeping my fingers crossed he makes it onto the practice squad.
Quickly, there's now a third practice squader I've taken an interest in - Jamar Adams, an undrafted safety out of Michigan. Word was that he was once considered a second- or third-round pick before he slipped all the way out of the draft. Huh. Jim Mora was plenty excited that the Seahawks were able to pick him up, and Adams has shown potential in camp. The Seattle P.I. has an article about the Seahawks maybe keeping nine defensive backs, rather than their normal eight. I really need to find Sando's roster analysis for historical trends by position group so that I can make better-informed statements about roster spots. Anyway, Adams is pushing, and I'm going to keep an eye on him.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
A Tail of Two Practice Squaders
I'm referring to Logan Payne and Justin Forsett, of course.
I've been following the competition between the four young receivers, and the official word is that Taylor, Obomanu, Payne, and Kent are in a dead heat. (I'm serious about the official part - Holmgren said as much on Friday with Mitch). Off the record, it's sounding like Courtney Taylor is the leader in the clubhouse. Unfortunately he's had some hamstring trouble so he hasn't yet been able to absolutely pull away. But who will end up as the number three receiver isn't what I'm all that interested in, mainly because Deion Branch will ultimately return and push everybody down a notch. What I'm interested in is who will be the sixth receiver. Why? Because there's a good chance the Seahawks will keep only six, with number seven making it to the practice squad... assuming another team doesn't sign him to their active roster.
I've been pulling for Logan Payne to make the active roster, and after much thought I've come to the conclusion that he's probably the odd man out, which sounds crazy given his performance in training camp. But how does he get picked ahead of any of the following:
Back in a bit for Justin Forsett.
I've been following the competition between the four young receivers, and the official word is that Taylor, Obomanu, Payne, and Kent are in a dead heat. (I'm serious about the official part - Holmgren said as much on Friday with Mitch). Off the record, it's sounding like Courtney Taylor is the leader in the clubhouse. Unfortunately he's had some hamstring trouble so he hasn't yet been able to absolutely pull away. But who will end up as the number three receiver isn't what I'm all that interested in, mainly because Deion Branch will ultimately return and push everybody down a notch. What I'm interested in is who will be the sixth receiver. Why? Because there's a good chance the Seahawks will keep only six, with number seven making it to the practice squad... assuming another team doesn't sign him to their active roster.
I've been pulling for Logan Payne to make the active roster, and after much thought I've come to the conclusion that he's probably the odd man out, which sounds crazy given his performance in training camp. But how does he get picked ahead of any of the following:
- Courtney Taylor, as I said above, is the best of the bunch. He has usable talent now with an upside surpassed only by Jordan Kent.
- Speaking of, Kent has raw athleticism that simply can't be taught. He's big, fast, and can jump. He may not be ready this year, but he could well be ready next year, and more than any of the other four there's a big risk another team will sign him if he's cut for the practice squad.
- Ben Obomanu has an extra year of experience over the other three (I may be wrong about this part, but he may no longer be eligible for the practice squad), and may be the most game-ready of all.
Back in a bit for Justin Forsett.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Competition: Minnesota Vikings
Have I mentioned I'm completely geeked for the football season to start? So geeked that I'm going to drive to Oxnard this weekend to see the Dallas Cowboys practice. So geeked that I'm going to sit through the entire Hall of Fame game this Sunday, knowing full well Peyton Manning won't play a single down. So geeked that I paid $2.99 each for four NFL network game replays from iTunes. And you know what? It was totally worth it.
I watched the Redskins playoff game. I'd forgotten how much of the scoring happened at the very end. But, nothing much relevant from that game, other than wondering how Jim Zorn will fair in his first year coaching them. I also watched the Bears game. Man, it's nice watching the Bears lose. It was weird watching Cedric Benson just go off against Seattle's run defense. Dude isn't on a team now.
So, what does all of this have to do with the Vikings?
The one player that really torched the Seahawks was Bernard Berrian. His game stats weren't eye-popping (9 receptions for 102 yards), but he repeatedly made clutch plays, and had one amazing catch of a ball thrown well behind him. (Grossman threw a number of balls behind his receivers. Dude sucks). And, of course, Berrian is now on the Vikings. I didn't think that was such a big signing for them until I rewatched this game. Granted Berrian had his best game of the season against the Seahawks, but if that's his upside, it just makes the Vikings that much more scary.
It's kind of ironic that I lead into the Vikings with the Bears, because I can see a bit of the 2006 Bears in the 2008 Vikings: A two-headed monster at running back, a great offensive line, Berrian, a (maybe?) great defense... and a big-ol' question at quarterback. That's a formula that took the Bears to the Super Bowl, at which point the clock struck midnight for Grossman and he tossed the game away with two bad-decision interceptions.
(I should point out that I dislike the Vikings much the way I dislike the Bears. They jacked Hutchinson from us after the 2005 season, and then further wrecked the 2006 season when E.J. Henderson rolled-up Hasselbeck's knee. I'll forever believe was done at least wishfully, if not completely on purpose.)
Still, they got to the Super Bowl. I've got to believe that if the Vikings end the year by losing in the Super Bowl, the 2008 season has to be considered a success. The Seahawks don't play the Vikings in the regular season (though they do play them in the first preseason game), and that's perfectly fine with me. The Vikings have a chance to be scary good, and will almost certainly be in the running for the NFC North title.
I watched the Redskins playoff game. I'd forgotten how much of the scoring happened at the very end. But, nothing much relevant from that game, other than wondering how Jim Zorn will fair in his first year coaching them. I also watched the Bears game. Man, it's nice watching the Bears lose. It was weird watching Cedric Benson just go off against Seattle's run defense. Dude isn't on a team now.
So, what does all of this have to do with the Vikings?
The one player that really torched the Seahawks was Bernard Berrian. His game stats weren't eye-popping (9 receptions for 102 yards), but he repeatedly made clutch plays, and had one amazing catch of a ball thrown well behind him. (Grossman threw a number of balls behind his receivers. Dude sucks). And, of course, Berrian is now on the Vikings. I didn't think that was such a big signing for them until I rewatched this game. Granted Berrian had his best game of the season against the Seahawks, but if that's his upside, it just makes the Vikings that much more scary.
It's kind of ironic that I lead into the Vikings with the Bears, because I can see a bit of the 2006 Bears in the 2008 Vikings: A two-headed monster at running back, a great offensive line, Berrian, a (maybe?) great defense... and a big-ol' question at quarterback. That's a formula that took the Bears to the Super Bowl, at which point the clock struck midnight for Grossman and he tossed the game away with two bad-decision interceptions.
(I should point out that I dislike the Vikings much the way I dislike the Bears. They jacked Hutchinson from us after the 2005 season, and then further wrecked the 2006 season when E.J. Henderson rolled-up Hasselbeck's knee. I'll forever believe was done at least wishfully, if not completely on purpose.)
Still, they got to the Super Bowl. I've got to believe that if the Vikings end the year by losing in the Super Bowl, the 2008 season has to be considered a success. The Seahawks don't play the Vikings in the regular season (though they do play them in the first preseason game), and that's perfectly fine with me. The Vikings have a chance to be scary good, and will almost certainly be in the running for the NFC North title.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Notes from SI.com's Seahawks Preview
Start off with the link. It's unfortunately that Peter King isn't stopping at Seahawks camp, just because I enjoy his writing. I'm not familiar with Jim Trotter (looks like he was signed away from a San Diego newspaper last year), but the article seemed well written, so good start, Jim.
Here's a stat about Seattle's 2007 running game that I hadn't heard before, but was not at all surprised about:
Here's a stat about Seattle's 2007 running game that I hadn't heard before, but was not at all surprised about:
Percentage-wise in 2007, the unit ranked first in negative rushes (15.8) and last in third-and-1 conversions (45.8). The league average in the latter was 71.6.I'd like to know what the breakdown was for each running back, which of course means I'd like to know how poorly Shaun Alexander ran. He always seemed to get caught behind the line of scrimmage. Yes, the offensive line shares the blame, and overall there was a negative synergy between Alexander and the line that produced results worse than the sum of the parts. The league average on third-and-1 was 71.6%. The Seahawks were 25 percentage points worse. I guess that's what T.J. Duckett was signed for. We'll check back in on those numbers at mid-season and see how we've progressed.
Although he's not participating in team workouts, Branch has looked surprisingly strong during rehab sessions. On Monday morning he ran, cut and moved laterally without signs of discomfort during agility drills.I wasn't too worried about missing Deion Branch for a significant part of the season until one of the newspaper blogs pointed out that Hasselbeck has a special (game) relationship with Branch, similar to what he had with Darryl Jackson, that he doesn't have with Burleson or any of the young receivers. And then I got hooked watching nfl.com videos yesterday and came across a couple of beautiful connections between Hasselbeck and Branch:
- Week 3 against the Bengals (1:13 in)
- Week 4 against the 49ers (1:11)
- Week 14 against the Cardinals (0:26 and 1:10)
Monday, July 28, 2008
On the Radar: Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers had a tough 2007 season, losing Jake Delhomme early and struggling to a 7-9 record. This year they're being passed over in favor of the Saints as the sheik team to beat the Buccaneers for the NFC South. But they just may become the sheik sleeper of 2008.
I was listening to a preview of the Panthers on one of my football podcasts and it was mentioned that Jonathan Stewart had been drafted by the Panthers. I already knew that, but hearing it that time made something in my head go 'click': Wow, the Panthers are stocked at the skill positions on offense.
So, the question, besides can Delhomme (and Hackett) stay healthy, is will the defense be any good? They've got Julius Peppers. The only other guy I recognize is Ken Lucas, so I'll just have to wait and see. If they have a bad defense, they could be the Bengals of 2007. If they have a decent (or better) defense, they could be the Bengals of 2005.
I was listening to a preview of the Panthers on one of my football podcasts and it was mentioned that Jonathan Stewart had been drafted by the Panthers. I already knew that, but hearing it that time made something in my head go 'click': Wow, the Panthers are stocked at the skill positions on offense.
- QB: Delhomme - If he can stay healthy he's a poor-man's Hasselbeck at worst.
- RB: Stewart, DeAngelo Williams - Really, it's all about Stewart being the next Stephen Jackson.
- WR: Steve Smith, former Hawk D.J. Hackett, Muhsin Muhammed, Dwayne Jarrett
So, the question, besides can Delhomme (and Hackett) stay healthy, is will the defense be any good? They've got Julius Peppers. The only other guy I recognize is Ken Lucas, so I'll just have to wait and see. If they have a bad defense, they could be the Bengals of 2007. If they have a decent (or better) defense, they could be the Bengals of 2005.
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