Early Training Camp - Part 2

I made a list of all of the topics to touch on for my first training camp post and ended up doing only half of them with the previous post. As it turned out, the only topics that were left revolved around the running back.

I'm in the group that isn't going to miss Shaun Alexander. He probably would have had a better year behind a line with Mike Wahle, coached by Mike Solari, but that assumes he had stayed healthy, which he hadn't over the previous two seasons, and that those injuries were what affected his numbers, not that he had hit 30 years-old and was experiencing what most running back do at-or-around 30 - a significant drop off in production. Alexander was a major risk on both of those levels and it made sense to replace him.

Alexander's true replacement will be Julius Jones. What are some reasonable expectations for Jones?

1. Stay healthy
2. At least 4.0 yards/carry
3. Be a viable pass-catcher out of the backfield
4. Be a good enough pass-blocker to be in on third downs.
   

Health... we'll just have to see. Jones turns 27 just before the season starts. That's prime age for health.

Sando: The Seahawks have not yet committed to Julius Jones as their starting running back, but if he is indeed the favorite, Maurice Morris can't afford to make the decision easier. That thought came to mind as Morris dropped an easy pass roughly 10 yards downfield. A short time later, Jones made a catch over his left shoulder despite tight coverage from linebacker David Hawthorne.

Farnsworth: (Jones) has looked quick and explosive as a runner and sure-handed as an outlet receiver.

More Farnsworth: Hasselbeck dump(ed) the ball off to running back Julius Jones when all his downfield receivers were covered. It might sound like a nondescript effort, but it was significant because Jones caught the ball and then darted up the field. That wasn't always the case when the dump-off target was Shaun Alexander, the back Jones was signed to replace.

Hugh Millen of KJR has great stats as to how little Alexander caught passes in the 2005-2007 seasons. If don't have the numbers available (though if you listen to Hugh he'll repeat them every so often), but the gist was that Alexander was one of the least productive running backs at pass-catching. From my observations, the most productive offenses are the ones where their running backs are check-down threat (Tomlinson in San Diego, Addai in Indianapolis, Maroney/Faulk in New England, just to name a few). Morris could catch passes, but he doesn't have the special 'it' (athleticism?) to be a feature back. Jones could be.

Holmgren says he wants Mo Morris to share duties, but I'd be surprised if Jones didn't get at least 60% of the carries, if not 75%. Last year Seattle had 430 rushing attempts. That number is probably a little lower than average given that Holmgren moved to a pass-heavy offense after the Cleveland game last year. In the previous four years (2003-2006) the Seahawks had 453, 468, 519 (Alexander's MVP year), and 484 rush attempts. The average of those five years is roughly 470 carries, which sounds like a reasonable estimate for 2008. Of those, say Jones gets 300 carries. At 4.0 yards a carry, Jones would end the season with 1200 yards. That's a nice goal number that encapsulates both health and run production.

As for pass blocking...

Williams: Julius Jones picked up linebacker Wesley Mallard on an inside blitz with an audible thud, something usually unseen from a halfback around here.

All good on the Jones front.

I mentioned taking a liking to Logan Payne because of his underdog status during last year's training camp. Justin Forsett is becoming the equivalent for this year's camp.

Sando: Rookie running back Justin Forsett, 5-foot-8 and 194 pounds, can be hard to find out there -- for defenders as well as spectators. He's got some fight, too, at one point winning a tug-of-war for the ball with Lofa Tatupu on the other end. It looked as though Forsett surprised Tatupu with his strength.

He's a total long shot to make the active roster, barring Weaver, Duckett, or Owen Schmidt getting cut. He's probably too small to be effective on special teams coverage, and would have to really show something to move up as a punt/kick returner. What I've heard is that he works hard, and as such he's probably a good candidate for the practice squad. He won't make it onto the active roster until the logjam at running back breaks up. I'll be pulling for him, though.

And lastly, a fun thought from Clare Farnsworth:

Something I'd like to see on the first short-yardage situation in the preseason is rookie fullback Owen Schmitt lead-blocking for Duckett, who has nifty feet for a back his size. That would be 500 pounds of thundering thighs and churning legs slamming into the gut of the opposing defense.

That would be awesome.