Competition: Minnesota Vikings

Have I mentioned I'm completely geeked for the football season to start? So geeked that I'm going to drive to Oxnard this weekend to see the Dallas Cowboys practice. So geeked that I'm going to sit through the entire Hall of Fame game this Sunday, knowing full well Peyton Manning won't play a single down. So geeked that I paid $2.99 each for four NFL network game replays from iTunes. And you know what? It was totally worth it.

I watched the Redskins playoff game. I'd forgotten how much of the scoring happened at the very end. But, nothing much relevant from that game, other than wondering how Jim Zorn will fair in his first year coaching them. I also watched the Bears game. Man, it's nice watching the Bears lose. It was weird watching Cedric Benson just go off against Seattle's run defense. Dude isn't on a team now.

So, what does all of this have to do with the Vikings?

The one player that really torched the Seahawks was Bernard Berrian. His game stats weren't eye-popping (9 receptions for 102 yards), but he repeatedly made clutch plays, and had one amazing catch of a ball thrown well behind him. (Grossman threw a number of balls behind his receivers. Dude sucks). And, of course, Berrian is now on the Vikings. I didn't think that was such a big signing for them until I rewatched this game. Granted Berrian had his best game of the season against the Seahawks, but if that's his upside, it just makes the Vikings that much more scary.

It's kind of ironic that I lead into the Vikings with the Bears, because I can see a bit of the 2006 Bears in the 2008 Vikings: A two-headed monster at running back, a great offensive line, Berrian, a (maybe?) great defense... and a big-ol' question at quarterback. That's a formula that took the Bears to the Super Bowl, at which point the clock struck midnight for Grossman and he tossed the game away with two bad-decision interceptions.

(I should point out that I dislike the Vikings much the way I dislike the Bears. They jacked Hutchinson from us after the 2005 season, and then further wrecked the 2006 season when E.J. Henderson rolled-up Hasselbeck's knee. I'll forever believe was done at least wishfully, if not completely on purpose.)

Still, they got to the Super Bowl. I've got to believe that if the Vikings end the year by losing in the Super Bowl, the 2008 season has to be considered a success. The Seahawks don't play the Vikings in the regular season (though they do play them in the first preseason game), and that's perfectly fine with me. The Vikings have a chance to be scary good, and will almost certainly be in the running for the NFC North title.

Notes from SI.com's Seahawks Preview

Start off with the link. It's unfortunately that Peter King isn't stopping at Seahawks camp, just because I enjoy his writing. I'm not familiar with Jim Trotter (looks like he was signed away from a San Diego newspaper last year), but the article seemed well written, so good start, Jim.

Here's a stat about Seattle's 2007 running game that I hadn't heard before, but was not at all surprised about:

Percentage-wise in 2007, the unit ranked first in negative rushes (15.8) and last in third-and-1 conversions (45.8). The league average in the latter was 71.6.

I'd like to know what the breakdown was for each running back, which of course means I'd like to know how poorly Shaun Alexander ran. He always seemed to get caught behind the line of scrimmage. Yes, the offensive line shares the blame, and overall there was a negative synergy between Alexander and the line that produced results worse than the sum of the parts. The league average on third-and-1 was 71.6%. The Seahawks were 25 percentage points worse. I guess that's what T.J. Duckett was signed for. We'll check back in on those numbers at mid-season and see how we've progressed.

Although he's not participating in team workouts, Branch has looked surprisingly strong during rehab sessions. On Monday morning he ran, cut and moved laterally without signs of discomfort during agility drills.

I wasn't too worried about missing Deion Branch for a significant part of the season until one of the newspaper blogs pointed out that Hasselbeck has a special (game) relationship with Branch, similar to what he had with Darryl Jackson, that he doesn't have with Burleson or any of the young receivers. And then I got hooked watching nfl.com videos yesterday and came across a couple of beautiful connections between Hasselbeck and Branch:

• Week 3 against the Bengals (1:13 in)
• Week 4 against the 49ers (1:11)
• Week 14 against the Cardinals (0:26 and 1:10)

Damn. Actually, it's crucial that we get Deion Branch back as a top target. I know he won't be 100% at the start of the season - players can play again a year after an ACL tear, but it always takes two before they're completely back. With luck, Branch can be close to 100% by the end of the season, when it counts.

On the Radar: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers had a tough 2007 season, losing Jake Delhomme early and struggling to a 7-9 record. This year they're being passed over in favor of the Saints as the sheik team to beat the Buccaneers for the NFC South. But they just may become the sheik sleeper of 2008.

I was listening to a preview of the Panthers on one of my football podcasts and it was mentioned that Jonathan Stewart had been drafted by the Panthers. I already knew that, but hearing it that time made something in my head go 'click': Wow, the Panthers are stocked at the skill positions on offense.

• QB: Delhomme - If he can stay healthy he's a poor-man's Hasselbeck at worst.
• RB: Stewart, DeAngelo Williams - Really, it's all about Stewart being the next Stephen Jackson.
• WR: Steve Smith, former Hawk D.J. Hackett, Muhsin Muhammed, Dwayne Jarrett

Nothing much from the tight end spot, but there are a ton of weapons there. I don't know much about their offensive line, but I do know that they've invested a bunch of money in their two tackles (that was probably the reason Mike Wahle was cut) and drafted Jeff Otah in the first round. What does that say about the line? Not sure. But their offense could be really good.

So, the question, besides can Delhomme (and Hackett) stay healthy, is will the defense be any good? They've got Julius Peppers. The only other guy I recognize is Ken Lucas, so I'll just have to wait and see. If they have a bad defense, they could be the Bengals of 2007. If they have a decent (or better) defense, they could be the Bengals of 2005.

Mike Solari at the Combine

Somehow I got routed to nfl.com from espn.com and I found my way into the video section. Over the last two season or so, nfl.com has really improved their online video selection. There's a ton from the offseason that I'm going to need to watch at some point, and I'll probably watch the highlights to each game last season to refresh on easily the Seahawks could have been 6-10 (or 13-3).

This time, though, I'm going to post a link to Mike Solari talking about offensive line drills at the NFL combine. Line play is the area of the game I (understandably) know least about, so I found this video interesting and a little educational with regards to what coaches are referring to when they talk about footwork and other fundamentals for their offensive linemen.

More Training Camp

Following up on some earlier thoughts...

I was wondering where Josh Wilson was...

Williams: Cornerback Kevin Hobbs continues to play well, and at 6-0, 200 pounds is a big corner who can match up with bigger receivers. However, Josh Wilson seems to have responded to the competition and has made some nice plays during 7-on-7 and team drills.

More Williams: Josh Wilson continues to impress, making a couple nice plays and deflecting balls in pass coverage.

And how 'bout a Logan Payne update?

Williams: Payne has caught everything, runs good routes and also would be a solid addition to the receiving core. It will be interesting to see who makes plays during team drills this morning.

Big dose of Farnsworth: In the race between "the young guys" for those fourth, fifth and sixth roster spots, the show of hands by the second-year wide receiver is starting to tilt things toward his favor.
Payne, just as he did as a rookie last summer, is catching just about everything thrown in his direction. In the full-team drill that concluded practice, he made impressive catches on passes thrown by each of the top three QBs.
Cornerback Kevin Hobbs stripped a ball thrown by Seneca Wallace from Payne's grasp, but he double-caught the ball as he was falling to the turf. Then, he got open coming across the middle to take a pass from Hasselbeck. On the third, Payne went down to get a low throw that Charlie Frye put where only Payne could get it.

I love what I'm hearing.

Lastly, John Morgan of Fieldgulls.com made a great observation about Mike Solari's impact on the offensive line's health:

Solari was the Kansas City Chief's line coach from 1997-2005. His offensive lines enjoyed absolutely remarkable health. In 1997, KC's starting offensive line started 79 of 80 contests. The one missed start was not because injury, but a last shot of redemption in week one for first round bust Trazelle Jenkins. In 2002, 2003, Solari's linemen didn't miss a single start. That near-invincible standard existed throughout Solari's time as offensive line coach in Kansas City.

I'm not sure how much preventative measures can be taken for Spencer's shoulders (since he's already on shaky ground), but keeping the rest of the line healthy, especially Walter Jones, will be huge.

I'll be back later with thoughts on the Vikings and Panthers.

Early Training Camp - Part 2

I made a list of all of the topics to touch on for my first training camp post and ended up doing only half of them with the previous post. As it turned out, the only topics that were left revolved around the running back.

I'm in the group that isn't going to miss Shaun Alexander. He probably would have had a better year behind a line with Mike Wahle, coached by Mike Solari, but that assumes he had stayed healthy, which he hadn't over the previous two seasons, and that those injuries were what affected his numbers, not that he had hit 30 years-old and was experiencing what most running back do at-or-around 30 - a significant drop off in production. Alexander was a major risk on both of those levels and it made sense to replace him.

Alexander's true replacement will be Julius Jones. What are some reasonable expectations for Jones?

1. Stay healthy
2. At least 4.0 yards/carry
3. Be a viable pass-catcher out of the backfield
4. Be a good enough pass-blocker to be in on third downs.
   

Health... we'll just have to see. Jones turns 27 just before the season starts. That's prime age for health.

Sando: The Seahawks have not yet committed to Julius Jones as their starting running back, but if he is indeed the favorite, Maurice Morris can't afford to make the decision easier. That thought came to mind as Morris dropped an easy pass roughly 10 yards downfield. A short time later, Jones made a catch over his left shoulder despite tight coverage from linebacker David Hawthorne.

Farnsworth: (Jones) has looked quick and explosive as a runner and sure-handed as an outlet receiver.

More Farnsworth: Hasselbeck dump(ed) the ball off to running back Julius Jones when all his downfield receivers were covered. It might sound like a nondescript effort, but it was significant because Jones caught the ball and then darted up the field. That wasn't always the case when the dump-off target was Shaun Alexander, the back Jones was signed to replace.

Hugh Millen of KJR has great stats as to how little Alexander caught passes in the 2005-2007 seasons. If don't have the numbers available (though if you listen to Hugh he'll repeat them every so often), but the gist was that Alexander was one of the least productive running backs at pass-catching. From my observations, the most productive offenses are the ones where their running backs are check-down threat (Tomlinson in San Diego, Addai in Indianapolis, Maroney/Faulk in New England, just to name a few). Morris could catch passes, but he doesn't have the special 'it' (athleticism?) to be a feature back. Jones could be.

Holmgren says he wants Mo Morris to share duties, but I'd be surprised if Jones didn't get at least 60% of the carries, if not 75%. Last year Seattle had 430 rushing attempts. That number is probably a little lower than average given that Holmgren moved to a pass-heavy offense after the Cleveland game last year. In the previous four years (2003-2006) the Seahawks had 453, 468, 519 (Alexander's MVP year), and 484 rush attempts. The average of those five years is roughly 470 carries, which sounds like a reasonable estimate for 2008. Of those, say Jones gets 300 carries. At 4.0 yards a carry, Jones would end the season with 1200 yards. That's a nice goal number that encapsulates both health and run production.

As for pass blocking...

Williams: Julius Jones picked up linebacker Wesley Mallard on an inside blitz with an audible thud, something usually unseen from a halfback around here.

All good on the Jones front.

I mentioned taking a liking to Logan Payne because of his underdog status during last year's training camp. Justin Forsett is becoming the equivalent for this year's camp.

Sando: Rookie running back Justin Forsett, 5-foot-8 and 194 pounds, can be hard to find out there -- for defenders as well as spectators. He's got some fight, too, at one point winning a tug-of-war for the ball with Lofa Tatupu on the other end. It looked as though Forsett surprised Tatupu with his strength.

He's a total long shot to make the active roster, barring Weaver, Duckett, or Owen Schmidt getting cut. He's probably too small to be effective on special teams coverage, and would have to really show something to move up as a punt/kick returner. What I've heard is that he works hard, and as such he's probably a good candidate for the practice squad. He won't make it onto the active roster until the logjam at running back breaks up. I'll be pulling for him, though.

And lastly, a fun thought from Clare Farnsworth:

Something I'd like to see on the first short-yardage situation in the preseason is rookie fullback Owen Schmitt lead-blocking for Duckett, who has nifty feet for a back his size. That would be 500 pounds of thundering thighs and churning legs slamming into the gut of the opposing defense.

That would be awesome.

Early Training Camp - Part 1

So glad to see training finally start. It's such a tease that the NFL has a steady stream of news from free agency until June minicamps, then goes dark for about a month before training camps start. That's why the Favre-Packers story got blown up like it did - it expanded to fill the empty vacuum that was NFL news.

The best way to follow training camp are the blogs of reporters that attend the camp. I'm always searching for more, but here's what I follow:

• Seahawks Insider - Tacoma News Tribune (Frank Hughes, occasionally Dave Boling)
• Seahawks Blog - Seattle Times (Danny O'Neil)
• Talkin' Hawks - Seattle P.I. (Clare Farnsworth)
• NFC West - ESPN.com (Mike Sando)

There's a good amount of repetition when you read all of them, but that's not a bad thing - if two or three notice a player being exceptional (good or bad) they all reinforce each others opinion. (Of course, such shared opinions could just be due to conversations they have during and after practices...). Plus, each has unique anecdotes that make reading all worthwhile.

So, here are some observations taken from others' observations:

My greatest concern for the season is the potential for injury on the offensive line. Spencer's status is questionable at best, and Walter Jones is getting old. Chris Gray, Spencer's backup, is already old. The other standard backup is Pork Chop Womack, and he can't stay healthy. An offensive line could completely derail the potential of this season (see Rams, 2007).

Sando: Line coach Mike Solari and assistant line coach Mike DeBord stood out as difference makers during my two days at training camp. They appear thorough and efficient. If Solari is running a drill that requires only five linemen, DeBord works with the other linemen in another drill off to the side.
A defensive player told me he already sees signs of a more cohesive offensive line. He notices linemen getting to the linebackers and defensive backs more effectively. Two of Seattle's most important free-agent additions might be coaches.

More Sando: The Seahawks appear to be developing young offensive linemen more effectively with Mike Solari and Mike DeBord coaching the line. Reminder: Keep an eye on Mansfield Wrotto and Kyle Williams in the exhibition games.

Farnsworth: Steve Vallos continues to get some work at center. In fact, with Chris Spencer STILL out, last year's seventh-round pick was even spelling Chris Gray with the No. 1 line this morning. Vallos is in the hunt for a spot on the 53-man roster.
As for Mansfield Wrotto, I wrote about last year's fourth-round pick during the final minicamp. After showing next to nothing while working on the practice squad last season, Wrotto has looked more mobile and athletic this year. Unless something strange happens, he will be one the backups.

Boling: The offensive line coaching duo of Mike Solari and Mike DeBord will be the topic for a column soon, so I'm not going to use all my material, but the energy and coaching they bring should have a big impact.

I was very excited about the potential for our starters under the tutelage of Solari and DeBord. It never occurred to me that they would play a role in developing the younger linemen as well. I will definitely be watching lineplay in the preseason games.

Back during the OTAs Mike Holmgren hinted that the second corner spot would be up for grabs. When I first heard that, I assumed he meant Josh Wilson would be the main challenger. But apparently Kevin Hobbs is the corner that's made the jump.

Sando: Signed from Auburn in 2006, Hobbs flashed surprisingly impressive natural ability for a player undrafted out of college. The Seahawks signed him to the active roster late last season as Hobbs improved under new secondary coach Jim Mora. The trend has continued this offseason, creating a competitive situation. Hobbs holds a considerable size advantage over Jennings, but he's still the underdog in this race.

Williams: probably a long shot to make the opening day roster, Auburn product Kevin Hobbs looked good at cornerback. At 6-0, 188 pounds, Hobbs is a big corner who appears to have the lateral quickness to cover receivers on an island, and might push guys in front of him like Josh Wilson and Jordan Babineaux.

What happened to Josh Wilson? I didn't hear much from him last year, partly due to injury, but he was supposed to be the one to challenge Jennings, what with his amazing speed. Holmgren has said before that you can never have too many defensive backs, so if Hobbs has developed into serious NFL-caliber corner (and probably a cheap one, given he was an undrafted free agent last year), that can only be good. Wilson was a second round pick though. Step it up, big boy.

Speaking of undrafted free agents and recent Auburn grads, my favorite competition of the preseason will be among the young wide receivers. I have a particular affinity for Logan Payne, probably because I heard promising things about him last training camp but figured he'd get cut, then he somehow managed his way onto the practice squad and, ultimately, onto the active roster. But really, all I want is for one to step out of the potential phase and into the production phase. I want to see another D.J. Hackett - someone who just steps up and makes big plays.

Farnsworth: The leader among "the young guys" for that third spot is Courtney Taylor. He has been working in the No. 1 group with Burleson and Engram... (C)oach Mike Holmgren had to admonish Obomanu a couple of times on Friday for breaking off his route too quickly and then not being in the huddle when his grouping was up.
Logan Payne continues to not only catch just about everything thrown his way, he gets open. Payne doesn't have the speed to be a vertical threat, but he does have the savvy and sense to work the middle of the field from the slot – as Engram has done for all these years and all those receptions.

Sando: The young receivers have yet to separate. Ben Obomanu made what I thought was the most impressive catch of the day for a 25-yard gain near the left sideline. None of the receivers appear to be faltering yet, but it's early.

Williams: Ben Obamanu, Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne, Joel Filani and Jordan Kent all looked good catching the ball, and no one distinguished themselves during the first practice... Kent, who hasn’t played receiver for very long, now looks a lot smoother at the position, and not like an athlete trying to play receiver.

Stay tuned, I guess.

This entry is getting long, so I'll stop it here. I'll finish up later with thoughts on the running backs.

Some Hawks Love from Don Banks

I caught this in his Patriots Postcard:

A 16-0 record is a distinct possibility. Wait a minute, that was last year. No way the Pats run the table again in the regular season. Right? Right. But 13-3 sounds about right to me. Who beats 'em? How about at San Diego in Week 6 (the Chargers are due against New England), at Indianapolis in Week 9 and let's say at Seattle in Week 14 (in an upset).

That's a nice compliment. I was hoping to look at the Patriots' schedule and find some other decent teams that Banks assumed would be Patriot wins, but it turns out the Pats have a fairly easy schedule. Pittsburgh as home could be a tough game, but it's still a home game. If the Jets trade for Farve... who knows. Anyway, no proxy comparisons to the Seahawks from the schedule. Nice to see some respect from a national writer.

Hashmarks Pre-Preseason Power Rankings

ESPN.com just released their NFL power rankings. Here's Sando's post, which lists each individual voter's picks. Overall I'd say the voters were pretty fair to the Seahawks. Sure, one knucklehead put them at 17, but even that's reasonable if you think Seattle's only good skill player on offense is Hasselbeck.

As Sando pointed out in a separate post (if you don't already, subscribe to the Hashmarks blog) the NFC West has the lowest average team ranking of the eight NFL divisions. I'm split as to whether I want the NFC west to be good (Seahawks get credit for tough wins) or bad (Seahawks cruise to the playoffs). I know I'm counting my chickens before they hatch here, but really, the Seahawks have had major questions (and major injuries) the past two years and each time they've found a way to win their division.

Anyway, the top NFC teams (average ranking in parens) are:

• Cowboys (4.4)
• Giants (5.4)
• Packers (9.1)
• Seahawks (9.3)
• Vikings (11.7)
• Saints (12.1)
• Eagles (12.3)

Interesting to note that while the absolute rankings of these teams spread out fairly evenly between 4 and 13, the average rankings suggest there are three tiers. I guess I'll put up the fourth tier as well:

• Buccaneers (15.3)
• Redskins (16.0)

Four from the East, two each from the North and South, and Seattle is the long representative in the West. (To be fair, the Cardinals were the next team, but had an average of 18.3 - well below the fourth tier).

I'll touch on each of these teams in future posts, as well as some others I'm keeping an eye on, but for now I'll talk a bit about the Giants.

The Giants peaked at exactly the right time last year. The won three road playoff games (funny how that was supposed to be unheard of, yet two to the last three Super Bowl winners have done just that) before giving me the second-best Super Bowl outcome behind a Seahawk victory - a Patriot defeat. The question is whether the peak will ultimately become a spike or a plateau.

I would be shocked if the Giants were a top NFC team this year.

• The four 2008 post-season games aren't a large enough sample for me to consider Eli Manning a Pro-Bowl level QB, especially given his career as a whole.
• Doubling-down on looking past the 2008 sample-set, in the last three regular seasons the Giants have won 11, 8, and 10 games. Winning 9 or 10 sounds right, not 12 or 13 (which is what it will take to be a top NFC team).
• The Giants lost a number of starters, either to retirement (Strahan) or free agency (Wilson and Mitchell are the first that come to mind).
• Newcomers in 2007 (Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Kevin Boss) will be fully-vetted by opposing scouts in 2008.
  

To finish up, I certainly don't think the Giants will be bad, but I don't expect them to compete with Dallas for the NFC East title (assuming Dallas stays at the top). The Giants are probably second- or third-tier NFC team.

Training Camp and Injuries

Rookies report Tuesday. Vets report Thursday. I'm all excited, ready for the season to get going... and then I hear about Philip Daniels blowing out his knee on the first play of the first practice of training camp. Sure, the Redskins were able to pick up Jason Taylor, which is certainly an upgrade (though at the cost of a second round pick, and a 6th rounder in 2010, which means the Redskins will once again be low on draft picks), but they were lucky to have Taylor available. Most other teams won't be so lucky.

Somehow I happened to get the Oakland broadcast of the Seahawks-Raiders preseason game last year. More than anything else, the moment I remember from that game was watching #90 limp off the field, his weight resting on the shoulders of two accompanying teammates, and me thinking "oh crap, I hope that's not Tubbs." And, of course, it was. That injury hurt, but I certainly wasn't expecting Tubbs to be a major contributor, and ultimately it allowed Brandon Mebane an opportunity to blossom.

Still, other injuries didn't have as great of silver linings. As much as I like Leonard Weaver, he didn't adequately replace Mack Strong. Alexander's injuries kept him tentative. (that's a lot of problems with the running backs....). Anyway, injuries are bound to happen. So, I'm going to explore what injury risks the Seahawks will face this year.

Hasselbeck: Seneca Wallace is to Hasselbeck what Brady was to Bledsoe? I think not. Wallace, given an entire season, and with the help of the defense, could probably win eight or nine games. Super Bowl? No way. We need Matt if we're going to have any chance at the Super Bowl.

Running backs: I'm excited to see what Julius Jones can do with the chip he has on his shoulder. Losing him basically gives us what we had last year. Plus T.J. Duckett, but who knows what that's going to be. No concerns with the current crop of fullbacks.

Offensive line: The Seahawks could have a great line this year. Or, they could end up like the Rams line from last year. I'm most concerned about Chris Spencer, just from what I've heard/read about his lack of participation in the off season camps. And, of course, losing Big Walt would be a killer. The Seahawks have poor o-line depth, maybe the worst among any position group on the team (the linebackers aren't particularly stacked either), so any injuries here will really hurt.

Tight end: I don't know what to expect from John Carlson, but he has the potential to great help the offense. At this point, losing him means losing that potential. The rest of the bunch look fairly interchangeable.

Wide receivers: The major injury to this group occurred in Green Bay last January. A second injury, to either Burleson or Engram, would hurt, but there are four young receivers waiting for their chance. I'll be keeping an eye on the reps that they get in the preseason.

Defensive line: The Seahawks are stacked at tackle. I was excited when Larry Triplett was signed, and he may get cut because there are six other tackles that could play ahead of him. The ends are less stacked, but one major loss could maybe be schemed around (playing Peterson on the line, etc).

Linebackers: Great starting three. The back-ups are... back-ups. Losing any of the starters will be a major drop-off in talent and production.

Corners: Depth here all depends on how good Josh Wilson is. Trufant is great, and Jennings is (probably) at least good. Lose one and Wilson has to step in. Again, watch for it in the preseason.

Safety: Deon Grant is amazing. Brian Russell... he seems to get ripped by John Morgan and other bloggers whose opinions I respect. I certainly don't watch enough tape to give an informed opinion. Babineaux, the next on the depth chart, is equally ripped. Is Mike Green still on the team? Losing Grant would hurt significantly. Not so much the others.

Why does this blog exist?

I'm a Seahawks fan stranded in LA. During the season I get either the Chargers or the Raiders on CBS. Phoenix and San Francisco are roughly the same distance from LA, and neither are close, so FOX usually gives us the national game of the week (read: NFC East). I love my apartment, but one of its major downsides is that it doesn't have a clear view of the southern horizon, thus I can't get DirecTV's NFL package. The NFL coverage in LA is essentially 'general national coverage', which typically translates into 'no Seahawks coverage'. In short, I have no outlet for my Seahawks thoughts... until now.